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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  June 14, 2013 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT

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passing day. >> the leaders on our own market are all the interest rate sensitive home builders. >> what does that tell you? >> some expectations differ on what central bankers will say next week. >> they still seem to like the hilsenrath angle from yesterday which is they're going to walk it back. >> great weekend. >> happy father's day. >> thank you, thank you. it will be fun. let's get back to headquarters. scott wapner and "the halftime." all right, guys, thanks so much. welcome to the half. four hours to go until the close of the week. right on the wall is where we stand on wall street at this hour. it's red arrows across the board. dow is down 73, s&p, nasdaq also selling off. here is what we're following on the half. free market it's/fair markets. eamon javers with shocking new details on how some investors are getting an unfair edge over you. bringing the heat. first solar shares up 65% in three months, but is the stock about to short circuit?
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a trader debate is just ahead. but first our top story, what a week it's been for stocks. a week that saw the first three-day sell-off of 2013 followed by a big gain yesterday. the second best day of the year for the s&p has the index hovering near positive territory for the month. the vix seeing its largest drop in two months. all of it raising the following questions, were fears of a bigger pull back overdone? what does all of it mean for your action. we're trading with pete and jn n najari najarian, stephanie link. how do you trade the market today? >> i think it's the same thing we've been talking about for a week and a half since we got to that may 3 1st and started to see the spike in the volatility index and we've traded above and closed since that time above that 200 day moving average. when you look at this week, even coming into today, you look at the s&p 500, it was virtually unchanged from last friday. you look at the volatility index as we have had this last week of trading, we have watched it go up and stay up for the most part. we were at 1865 just two days
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ago. but we still are up here now just underneath 17. so there's plenty of volatility in the markets. i think when you look across at the markets, i'm still staying away from the financials. i think they have some pressure even after yesterday's move but i still think you can get into the big cap tech nax. >> stephanie, i don't think it's stating it to say next week is the biggest week of the year for the market, whether this rally will continue or not is going to be what the fed has to say next week, right? >> yeah. and i think the volatility is going to continue beyond that as well until we get to corporate earnings, until we actually hear what companies have to say. that doesn't start until the 8th of july. that's alcoa. so now we're at the mercy of this macro, at the mercy of the fed. i don't think they're going too taper anytime soon. i look at the economic data even today. the industrial production numbers, i was excited we got a little bit of a revision from last month but the numbers are a little soft, sentiment was a little soft. that's offset by better retail sales yesterday and better
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initial claims. you're running at about 2%. i don't think they have the ammunition right now in the economy to pull away from what they're doing. so we're going to have to kind of continue to digest what they say and then obviously see what happens over seas with japan and with china. >> simon, you have been bullish. if the fed walks back some of its talk of late, getting a pretty good opportunity to buy into the market. >> you are. that's been the problem with that market. people yesterday have been sold out the market. the market recovers so quickly and so, yes, there's a lot of volatility in the market but i still think you need to stay long the market. when we come out to key technical levels, four times since november we have hit this 15-week moving average. we're touching it right about here. every time we have hit that, the markets bounce back out. i think you have to sit tight and central governments next week, not just the u.s., but also what's going to be happening in japan will have a big impact. >> doc, the yen is getting stronger, the dollar is falling, below 95. our markets heading to the lows of the day. is that the tell?
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or are there other things you're looking at in the market to get an edge on where you think we're going? >> i think we're basically erasing a little bit of the hilsenrath pop from yesterday afternoon, quite frankly. i don't disagree with what pete and others have said so far. i think yesterday, judge, we saw about 125 contract print. that's 125 at a time. in other words, the largest of the entire space in the vix. so that tells me institutions were getting some adjustment done in the vix yesterday. today it's up to 188 per trade in the vix. so that tells you institutions are in there. average size print is usually 10 or 15 contracts. when i'm seeing blocks of options today, they're not necessarily just buying protection. yesterday they were dumping out of protection. today they're not buying. they continue to sell even though the vix is rising about half a point. >> our next guest is cutting through the noise and says stay long u.s. stocks. rebecca patterson is live here
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on set. nice to see you again. >> thanks. so what do you think? this fed noise is just that? is it just noise? >> well, it reminds me of the european central bank, the ecb, in that the ecb has so many members and they're all talking to the media all the time, so it's that tower of babel literally and it confuses the market. now we're in a similar situation with the fed and i'm not blaming the media, scott, but everyone wants to hear what the fed thinks. everyone trots out every current, voting, nonvoting fed member and the market is reacting to everything. volatility is not going to go away this summer but the fed is not going to tighten. they might accelerate the balance sheet more slowly but the balance sheet is still growing. the economy isn't doing great but it's not doing horribly. i think stocks can still go up. it will just be a choppier summer. >> if there's any reason why the market may be misinterpreting what the fed is saying, a lot of that falls some would say on the shoulders of bernanke himself for his most recent performance on the hill. there were those who said he
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talked out of both sides of his mouth and confused the market. maybe this week gives him a chance or next week gives him a chance to clear the air, clear up what the fed is really thinking, and i'll tell you what, if he comes out and walks back some of this talk about taper, the market could be off to the races. >> i agree, i agree. i hope that's what he does. try to calm the volatility. the yield level isn't a big deal. it's the volatility in the bond market that i think is creating so much tension across asset classes. my problem and my nervousness around bernanke, i do think he'll walk back a bit but i can't walk back too far because then you see things like people reaching for yield in places they shouldn't, putting their hands in a cookie jar that isn't good for them. when we saw may people paying human premiums for rwandan bonds that's the sort of thing that makes bernanke stay up at night. he doesn't want that. >> where are the best places to look right now in the markets? if you say stay long u.s. stocks, where? >> i'm long term investors.
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i'm thinking this is something i want to own the next couple quarters. i do think with the volatility we have if you can think about your spots, right, the technicals will help you. i think the volatility could create a great trading market this summer but i would leave it to stephanie and the others to tell us which sectors to focus on. right now we're bottoms up. underweight materials, overweight health care, overweight tech, consumer discretionary but they're not sector bets. it's where we see opportunity. >> what are your thoughts about corporate earnings? what do you think we'll see in the second quarter and do you think we'll see a second half of the recovery? >> that's a great question. with the corporations, we're not seeing as much revenue growth as we'd like in part because the global economy is still soft. europe is still struggling to get out of recession. china is maturing, the growth pace is coming down. that's going to affect a lot of the multinationals. what we are seeing is companies getting really good at keeping up profits, and when we talk to
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companies, ceos, and cfos, folks in my fism going out and meeting with them, they feel they can find more to trim. >> good thesis on long term u.s. equities but obviously the yield curve made out pretty aggressively. at what stage does that start to concern you in terms of the equity in markets over here in u.s.? 250, 260? >> if we saw -- if i saw the ten-year yield at 250 or 260, i would hope that we would be seeing nonfarm payrolls also rising or climbing above 200 easily, like 250 on payrolls, 2.5 on the ten-year. i'm simplifying but that sort of level would make me feel good. if we see bond markets rise too fast versus actual grout, that makes me more nervous. >> emerging markets are going to have their fifth week of declines. they may be more susceptible to fed talk than anyone else. >> right.
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emerging markets are getting hit by the yield differential, the expectation of that narrowing. they're getting hit by the stronger dollar. they're getting hit by people wanting to take profit off position but i think fundamentally emerging markets are having a bit of a challenge. china's story is structural but people have to get used to that. emerging marketses in general are growing below trend. i think they could underperform for a while. the valuations are getting more attractive but i'm not rushing to get in there. why won't those drag us down? i agree with you on the emerging markets. they expect it to go down not just in the near term, no the just day traders, but out into september and going further out. why won't that drag down the u.s. markets with them? >> well, again, they've gotten a lot more liquid. they've gotten a lot bigger. emerging markets is a share of global gdp today is actually bigger than the developed markets. the share of global gdp so we
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have to pay attention to the emerging marketing but i don't think we're looking at hard landings and expectations are moving quickly in line with what's happening there. i don't think china is going to allow a hard landing. they have enough tools they can keep growth supported in a range between 7% and 8%. i think that look good enough but it is a bid of a headwind. it's something that will affect you as firms especially companies like caterpillar, companies exposed to places like china. >> put your currency hat on for us because i know how closely you watch those markets. we making too much of dollar/yen and this 95 level, the facts we've dumped under that? we seem to be trying to make a relationship or a correlation between the strengthening yen and the falling dow. >> yeah, no, we are making too much of it, but perception is reality. this time last summer more or less, slovakia was driving the s&p for a couple days, right? greece was driving the s&p. today it's japan's turn. we live in a globally
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interlinked economy and financial market, so it's going to happen. why do we care about japan? it's still a huge economy in the world. if it can get growth, that matters. what the boj is doing is extraordinary. their balance sheet went from 60 trillion yen to almost 75 trillion yen between april and today. they actually put daily data on bloomberg, sorry to mention them, but daily data to show where their balance sheet is going and it's parabolic. it's going straight up. that's a big change in the pace of policy there. that affects the markets. so we should pay attention to them but are we focusing on it too much? yeah, we are. >> good to see you. >> great to be on. thanks. >> rebecca patterson. what are the trades here, guys? >> i'm still concerned about the u.s. markets based upon how closely tied we are, quite frankly, ap i'm concerned the one area you didn't mention, you talked about different sectors, was the financials. i'm a little more as scott obviously was aware of the other day and i talked about the financials forever for six months. now i have suddenly gotten cautious on them and i actually think there's more downside.
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what about those financial markets? i think that's a concern right now. >> we've been underweight financials and fortunately i have some really good stock pickers on my team so despite that underweight we've seen some pretty good performance this year but i think broadly speaking we're taking a slightly cautious view on them right now. if the u.s. can keep healing though and yields are rising, the yield curve is steep and that's because of growth, bigger picture i think that's going to be a good backdrop for financials but right now we're underweight. je . >> enjoy the weekend. >> thanks. >> it's mecca for video game developers, e3 convention just wrapping up. we're talking to a top analyst who was there. we'll get the hottest new games and how to trade them. later with global markets in turmoil, is the u.s. the greatest trade in the world right now. seepor columnist at yahoo! mike santoli gives you the play and much more when "the half" comes back. rocess, it's easy to follow the progress you're making toward all your financial goals. santoli gives you the play and much more when "the half" comes back. when the conversation turns to knowing
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welcome back to "the halftime." first up, restoration hardware, simon, give me the read there. you have restoration moving up, william sonoma moving down. >> restoration hardware is a fairly new company, ipo'd not too long ago but they beat on earnings and revenue and increased next year's earnings. what's impressive has been the high end furnishing. stock looks strong. company is expanding well. i think the stock looks very good. definitely buy here. >> smith & wesson, doc, stock is
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up 5%. >> they basically raised what the earnings are going to be by about 10%. that was the bottom line number. the top line number also incompetent creased over at smith & wesson and they announced $100 million share repurchase program. the stock is pushing up basically to $10 or close to it. the 52-week high is $11. >> stephanie link, boeing at the wall right now is down a fraction. >> this is a stock i would love to buy if it ever were to pull back. the aerospace cycle is still in early inning driven by the replacement story. the average age is 14 years old and these companies are looking to get better production and efficiencies from the new planes that boeing is offering. you want to own the stock and if you get any sell on the news kinds of things, i think that's when you want to buy. >> good week for shares of game stop up about 7% following that successful showing at e3.
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an upgrade at oppenheimer. michael joins us from l.a. welcome back. >> thank you, scott. >> what was the big standout? >> you know, i think actually it's about the consols because the software was really impressive. microsoft didn't do a very good job of explaining to consumers why they need to spend an extra 100 bucks to get a camera and a microphone array. sony exploited that. they charged 100 bucks less than microsoft so right now they're the winner. the software was amazing. i think a lot of people were concerned that graphics wouldn't be enough of an improvement to drive consol sales. if you look at game stop stock, clearly people are convinced that they're going to sell a lot of consols, and i think a lot of software. so the two guys that really jumped out i think activision they had call of duty.
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ae had titan fall coming out in the spring that's something different from a u.s. publisher. it looks very japanese. people were excited as hell about it. it's going to be a fun year. >> what about the restrictions on the new xbox? did microsoft shoot itself in the foot? >> big time. microsoft is trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist. they want every game to be accessed instantly so they want you to download it to your hard drive. once you do that, that causes a problem because you don't want the game to be downloaded to multiple hard drives and yet they want to allow people to sell used games. so that means you've got to log on every day, they've got to validate that the game isn't in two places at once and they'll wipe out one of them and gamers are up in arms. they don't want big brother looking over their shoulder and forcing them to logon. it really is complicated. microsoft has a lot of 'splaining to do as ricky ricardo used to say. i don't think they've done a
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good job of explaining this. >> michael, i love your work, and i love the game stop call here because i think they are the huge beneficiary because of, like you say, sony and ps4 taking advantage of microsoft and ultimately probably moving microsoft away from that strategy that you just described that's probably going to be a failed strategy if the other gaming platform allows you just to -- isn't basically putting up a road block to used games and so forth. so you'd obviously go for sony over microsoft here, but how much more gas does game stop have because of this basically road block being removed? >> well, john, i have a man crush on you, too. >> geez. >> you know, i think that what really matters for game stop is both consols will allow disk sales. they both have disk drives. they're both going to use physical media, and so game stop is going to be around until disks are eliminated.
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you're going to get a migration to digital downloads and both will allow full game digital downloads. we'll see how fast that's taken up. that's really the bear thesis on game stop. i think that is five years at least until it becomes 30% or 40% of the market. i think game stop continues to gain share throughout. i think they have a lot of years ahead of them. they keep buying back stock. it's a great management team. >> right. >> i think earnings keep going up. >> michael, we got to run but quickly, speaking of bear thesis, are you going to capitulate on netflix anytime soon? >> as soon as i'm wrong, yeah. >> you're still convinced you're right even as you see the stock react it does. >> the stock price has nothing to do with my thesis about cost. >> always good having you on the show, michael. >> thank you. >> guys, trade it. >> i'm not a big fan of game stop.
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digital. xbox announced they can download the same day. johnny gamer is not going to stand in line and wait for it. >> why is microsoft being hammered about that decision about some of the restrictions on the xbox. why are they taking so much heat? >> i think the heat they were taking was on not allowing them to use the secondary games, not on the digital download and i think over 70% of games are downloaded digital. one word, blockbuster. >> i like microsoft to change their attitude on this and i think if and when they do, then that's another boost that you're going to get out of game stop because if you can get that device download like simon says which is fast and easy and you get to use it over and over again -- >> i think you lost that debate already. >> no, no, look at game stop, it's up 21%. >> ask the public. >> all right. you all can tweet me
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@scottwapn @scottwapnercnbc. first solar has been the best performer but has the stock gotten too expensive? two of our traders square off and it's been one of the most controversial topics of this week. are free markets always fair markets? eamon javers has more shocking details in his latest investigation. >> well, the question all week has been do traders get an advance look at the university of michigan consumer sentiment number this came out this morning? when we come back i'll tell you if we saw any movement in advance of the official release of the number. , i'll tell you if we saw any movement in advance of the official release of the number. [ indistinct sho] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ]
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[ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪
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>> we've been talking about this issue. this is the university of michigan consumer confidence survey. what we proved earlier in the week is by contract they actually release that data two seconds earlier to elite high speed subscribers on the thomson reuters high speed fiber line. that data came out this morning. >> just coincidently in the middle of this investigation. >> it had to be very, very highly anticipated on wall street. a lot of controversy about this this week. here is exactly what happened this morning as we were waiting for this data could come out early this morning. at 9:54:58 a.m. is when the advance traders get a look at it. here is what happened. >> we continue to watch the tick with a few seconds left. eamon, hard to say whether you're prodiction is correct or not. >> it went down. it went down. >> let's get to rick santelli in chicago. >> 82.7 is the number and, remember, now, this is a june prelimina
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preliminary. why is that important? because our last look was the best that we had seen at 84.5 since july of '07. this definitely brings it back down a notch. >> okay. so it shows clearly that it was a negative report, right? >> yeah. >> it also shows clearly based on that chart that the market moved lower in the seconds before it was actually released proving the theory you have been investigating. >> what we saw was a move down at 9:54:58, two seconds before the 5:55 a.m. general release and five minutes and two seconds before it's available to the general public. we saw a muted reaction, a little less dramatic than we've seen maybe because of the scrutiny because we were watching it live on the air, other people were watching it. >> because everybody knows you're watching it unfold. >> a lot of people are looking at this today. take a look at the chart we've got from eric at nanex. what you will see in the chart is a very clear line which shows the 9:55 time frame and ast of
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trading activity. the green line very high is the spike of volume at 9:54:58. the red line is 9:55. that's when the conference call with paying subscribers begins. two seconds earlier look at the spike in trading. that's when the high speed guys with the fiberoptic cables got the low latency feed. we saw a spike in volume, we did see a move down based on a bearish number but not as dramatic an effect as we've seen in past weeks. >> doc, you railed on this the other day. >> i still rail on it. i heard jim cramer rail on it. this is just wrong. there are guys in prison that got a copy of business week's story before it hit the newsstands and yet these guys can apparently get market moving information two seconds ahead of this data. that's just bs. that's complete garbage. it's what destroyed confidence in the markets. you got to put a stop to all of that. >> simon baker. >> i agree, too, and i think i
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mean it's sort of a gray area. people are on both sides of it. a school of higher education, i think it comes down to eth irks. if it's a gray area, they should remove themselves from it. >> what do regulators say? presumably we're asking for some kind of comment from the regulator community. >> we've been asking for a lot of comment. the s.e.c. has not commented. they said they would decline to comment on this. at the cftc bart chilton, a commissioner, was on our air earlier in the week. he said he thinks this is not necessarily illegal but he thinks it's unfair and might contract to the general sense of retail investors that there is something sneaky going on. >> you about you think they're going to take some sort of action? >> i don't think so. the university of michigan said yesterday they were content that what we've done abides by the rules. they say this particular number which dates back to the 1940s has been released in advance to paying subscribers all the time. it's the history --
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>> they're degrading that michigan degree by saying that. it's unethical and it's a lack of moral compass to do that. >> in this day and age when you have so much regulation across all of wall street, it's so important to make it a level -- >> in the 1940s they didn't have computers. >> that two second manage is a big one. let me give you the free market sort of argument on this from libertarians who say it's privately funded data. it's private research. if we're going to pay for the research, we should be able to get it first. it's no different than paying jpmorgan and saying we want to get access to that information early. or a journalistic entity like "the wall street journal." there's a gradation here. this might be on one end of the spectrum, but the challenge for regulators will be figuring out where on that gradation is it okay and where is it not okay and this -- >> and apparently we should subscribe to the nsa, right?
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the nsa if -- >> they probably knew five seconds earlier. >> if they're reading our techs, we should all subscribe to the nsa. >> eamon javers. the japanese equity markets have seen a lot of volatility but pete is playing it through an etf and, look, dxj, ewj -- >> dx j is the most interesting one. the reason i say that though, judge, is the fact it's hedged -- >> it hedges the currency. >> it takes out the currency risk. that's what people are looking for. this is a volatile index. you're talking about it was up over 40% earlier in the year. now you're actually catching up towards the s&p near about that 20% level. so you can see that kind of volatility you're talking about. almost 8 million shares a day trade here though. and when you look at the options, extremely liquid. when you're looking at the etfs, some of the most important things you have to have is liquidity. you have to have that liquidity. if you don't it's a roach motel.
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this is a great way to play japan. if you want to be involved in anything in the equity markets of japan, yes. >> what i'm asking you is, do you want to be involved in the equity markets given that they've been cratering. >> i just took off some of my positions in some of the japanese banks personally. i was not in the dxj. i was in individual names. i was on the show a couple weeks ago talking about i thought it was -- >> nomura who thinks the nikkei is going 2018,000. that nomura? >> that might be one of the reasons i decided to trim up. first solar, is the stock too hot to handle. it's been burning up the bears, but one of our traders thinks that's all about to change which means we're going to debate it. and has this man made the u.s. the best trade in the world? right there. mr. bernanke. mike santoli of yahoo! finance joins us with that answer. that and much more when "the half" returns. all business purchases.
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the ones getting involved and staying engaged. they're not afraid to question the path they're on. because the one question they never want to ask is "how did i end up here?" i started schwab for those people. people who want to take ownership of their investments, like they do in every other aspect of their lives. the blisters were oozing, and painful to touch. i woke up to a blistering on my shoulder. i spent 23 years as a deputy united states marshal. we'd get up early and, and stay up late. there was a lot of running, a lot of fighting. i've been pretty well banged up but the worst pain i've experienced
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was when i had shingles. i was going through some extremely difficult training, and i couldn't do it. when we were going through pursuit driving, i couldn't put a seat belt on because the pain that would have been caused by the seat belt rubbing against the shingles would have been excruciating. when i went to the clinic, the nurse told me that it was the result of having had chickenpox. i had never heard of shingles prior to that point and i had always been relatively healthy. the rash, the itching, the burning that i experienced on the side of my neck and my shoulder, i wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy. the best performer in the s&p in the last three months is also one of the most shorted stocks. what's the rate way to trade first solar.
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pete najarian is the bull, simon baker is the bear. 1:30 is on the clock. >> one of the things i like is the fact that for a while there was rumors about them actually putting out a secondary that might hurt the stock. stock was $55, now it's $46, today a little below that but they managed to raise some money. when you look at the stock, it's trading right around book value. as a matter of fact, four times cash flows. this is a very interesting stock. they've got great earnings right now and they're competitive now because of the landscape changing because of the tariffs on some of the chinese imports. i think a variety of reasons like that and the fact their mir jins have improved so much, the growth in japan in solar is something no one is paying attention to. they moved away from nuclear, they're going towards solar. it will be one of the fastest growing markets. >> i agree with that for the last ten years. but it's a game changer. it's essentially forced them out of the residential area which is massive. i'm looking over there at the chart. solar city is up 5% when first
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solar is down 2%. that's where the market is going forward. the secondary market had a big impact. when you're looking at margins, margins will get compressed going forward. no new bookings year-to-date. when you look at once they have going forward, much more -- the average margin is three megawatts. on the current ones, 1.32. if it's up 50%, move out and sell the stock and buy first -- >> take a breath. pete. >> this is a solar company that makes a heck of a lot of money. >> how can they compete when they're not in the residential market which is where the market is going. >> the growth market is in japan and the japan market is not just about residential. >> it's a u.s.-based company. >> but they will be flowing over there -- >> wait until you're in japan and then buy the stock. >> that's the last word. stephanie link, who made the more compelling argument? >> i'm going with simon.
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i just think that there's still overcapacity and i'm nervous about the gross margins coming down. so i think you could probably get a better price. fabulous company, best in the space. if you want to be there, this is it. i think you can get a better price. >> tweet us @cnbcfastmoney. use the hash tag bull or bear. we'll give you the results at the end of the show. it's a common theme on the street. buy u.s. stocks. but this consensus view, is it becoming too crowded a trade? mike santoli joins us from chicago. welcome back. >> good to see you. >> does seem to be the prevailing thought. best house in a bad neighborhood, however you wanted to describe what's happening. best place to invest is here, is that wrong? >> it's been the right position to have. i just think talking to people the last couple days at the morningstar conference, it seems like people are pretty comfortable in this consensus and i heard earlier you were questioning ra beck that patterson about we had a 2500
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basis point outperformance of the s&p versus emerging markets. how much farther can that stretch and in what way might that converge? emerging markets start to outperform by going up or by the s&p coming in a little bit. that is the big question i have. u.s. housing recovery is like the one reliable global growth theme i think people have great confidence in. so i'm not really bearish because of this consensus but i think it really as we go into 2014 have to start asking are there other parts of the world that are overdo to play some catch-up. >> the problem is you have to stick your neck out much farther to go there. emerging markets down five straight weeks at this point. it's a little bit of a leap to think that it's going to turn around anytime soon relative to our market. >> a huge leap, and you have all these head winds that are very well-kno well-known. even when you talk about -- you don't have to go to emerging markets. you go to europe, the stuff that people acknowledge is cheapest is kind of the ugliest, riskiest stuff. that's all the way it is. it's hard to actually call a turn. i do think there's a general view that em looks cheap but is
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it cheap for a reason or is it cheap as an opportunity? >> john? >> michael, you have cited the housing which everybody does and i don't blame you for it and that has just made a pretty dramatic turn. i have noted beazer and all the rest, toll brothers, making big turns just two or three days ago and moving up as much as 7% or 8% over that same time frame and today they're among the stocks still in the black against a red tape. so that doesn't sound like the housing thesis is breaking apart, does it? >> i don't think the housing thesis is breaking apart. i look at the home builders as really the whip end of this whole theme, right? they're the ones that have the most leverage to the market in general, and i feel like they already had their move over 18 months. i have actually not thought they were a great opportunity on the long side for a few months now. and that's been wrong for long periods of time, but i do think that the general theme of housing recovery as an economic driver, as the reason that the
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u.s. can actually decouple, that to me is the very kind of cozy consensus that i'm highlighting here. so i don't really think it has to just ally to bom builders. >> next week is a huge week. can you cut through the liesman wrath reporting on the fed, those guys know what the fed is thinking better than anybody, tell us what the market is going to be thinking next week and how crucial this coming week is as a guy who has watched a lot of markets. >> look, it is crucial, but i think that the market has kind of gotten to an equilibrium point where they're coming in from taper panic and they're not yet at the point where they think anything is really at stake in the june meeting in terms of actual policy change. so i feel like the fed has really gotten what it wanted to do here. they flicked the jab bernanke has and gotten the market back on its heels. they don't want an overconfident mark and now they say don't worry about it, we will be
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status quo for a while. it's a big week but i actually think the fed has kind of massaged the message well. i don't think its dissidence. >> today on big data download, it's all about the business of golf. the gang at big data download zeroing in on one company that's making a lot of headway. why the data may be pointing to more games for the stock ahead. find out which company made our list. that's today big data.cnbc.com. next on "the half" our big money traders go small. we'll bring you the four stocks that need to be on your small cap radar in our small cap spotlight when "halftime" is back in two minutes. the most free research reports, customizable charts, powerful screening tools, and guaranteed 1-second trades. and at the center of it all is a surprisingly low price -- just $7.95. in fact, fidelity gives you lower trade commissions than schwab, td ameritrade, and etrade.
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for the next hour of cnbc if you're looking for tyler, the lights are out, there's no one home. he and sue are off today. we have a special edition of "power lunch." we're going to talk about the markets. we're going to talk about security concerns, and we're going to talk about what happens when billionaires get divorced. we're covering the biggest and the most interesting stories of the week with a very special cnbc panel. scotty, you are going to be so envious when you see the next 60 minutes of television after
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yours. back to you. >> i already am. simon hobbs, thank you so much. we'll see you at the top of the hour. when it comes to stocks this year, bigger is not necessarily better. the russell 2000 is beating the s&p, dow, and nasdaq this year. since investing in the space comes with greater risk, we asked our traders for their favorite names. b bakes, you kick it off. >> communication commitment provided to rural telecom operators. think of it as a mini cisco systems. it's no the just new york city that needs high speed data. so does rural america. growing at 20% a year. $10. >> calx is the ticker symbol. stephanie link? >> ceva license out dsps to the mobile operators like broad com, intel, spectrum, and they make their money from royalty revenues and as you see going
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from 3g to 4g in the states and you're seeing 2g to 3g in china and spectrum told us that just yesterday. they're a 20% customer to ceva. trading at 13 times earnings. >> pete, what's your pick? >> beazer. believe it or not, this is an under500 million market share cap. >> it's right around five. >> they restructured their debt. if you listen to the ceo in the last earnings call, he talked about pushing forward when they'd become poftable into the second half of 2013 rather than the first half of 2014. i think when you look at the big shareholders, a lot of names you would usually like to follow in, i like to follow in also with blackstone who put themselves into a position with some land as well. >> doc, i will say a bit of a surprising and maybe a controversial pick just given what gold and silver have done lately. >> i like both metals down here
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at these levels, judge, and pan american silver is my pick, paas. the silver etf slv is down 26%. the stock is down 34%. it was $40 august of 2011. stephanie is grimacing. i know a lot of things were long this thing. at $12 i think it makes an awful lot of sense. so i like buying this one. their production of gold and silver is up. i think this is a good pick for second half. >> guys, do you agree with that call? >> silver -- >> kikts? >> a little bit of crickets out of me right now. i'm more on the copper side than i am on the silver side right now. when silver turns, that turns faster than gold. >> you have to put up with the flip side of that. when metal pulls back the other way it pulls back harder. >> but the stock is down so much already and it has an industrial component. >> so the risk/reward in an already risky space, you're thinking falls in your favor. >> it's about 50 cents, 60 cents off the 52-week low.
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52-week high is 22. the year and a half or two years ago it was august of 2011 north of $40. >> that's going to be in your speculation allocation, right? >> it is. >> here is the other thought, depending where the overall market goes, as small caps typically lead on the way up, small caps typically lead on the way down. all of you guys better hope there's not some sort of larger market correction in place because these stocks could, could get hit harder than some of their larger cap friends. >> i would argue the one i chose actually is already down a lot and it's underperformed substantially it's largest competitor. i tried to find something that has cash cushion, too, $7 a share in cash is a nice cash cushion. >> i think in this market you have to be overweight large cap over small cap. >> trade school is in session. one of our traders will show you how the pros manage a losing trade. you tweet it, we trade it. we'll give you plays on the
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stocks you asked for so you know where to put your money when we come back.
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not so fast, pete. our traders are quick but not always right. last month pete najarian made a bearish bet on google. let's take a listen. >> i'm going to say this is a sell. this is where guy and i disagree. i'm watching the margins compressing right now for google. in my opinion it's a one-trick
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pony. done a great job in search forever with the desktop. but how about with mobile? we're not guaranteed they will do outstanding once again. >> a one-trick boney. >> yeah. >> one-trick boney. >> one that's won a lot of blue ribbons. shares up 10% since that call. just today, pete. >> yes. >> the stock was added to the conviction buy list over at ever core. >> and a target of 10.50 on the stock so obviously very bullish. i continue to think, and i've been right on this side of the ledger, i look yahoo! as a stock better right now than google. i continue to like yahoo! better. it's outperformed google for the most part, and when you look at the date of that last clip, look at google and yahoo! they performed almost identically to the same way. i think you get better beta out of yahoo! >> questions, comments from the group? >> i like google. i'm not so concerned -- when they do something like this, young, where you have four analysts up over $1,000 a share for targets and things like that, that could get some people a little nervous. it certainly did in the case of
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apple. but i do like their business model. >> and i did add i was on the 5:00 show. i know you keep the best ideas for the halftime show. >> that's where we bring it. >> talk to me about the stocks, simon. >> what do you mean what? >> google, large-cap, i like the internet space and what google is doing. they are by far executing it far better than anyone else, just in terms -- i was out last night with dinner with a really smart cto and said the only place he would hire engineers from is from google, that smart and that good. >> cost her click is continuing to improve and that's what people are focused on for the valuation. i think it's great. >> trades on four stocks that have lit up my twitter feed. lululemon, conoco phillips and first up, lululemon, the company posting an ad on its website looking for a new ceo and here's what the the job description reads. pay close attention. you report to no one. you are the ceo, duh. you are passionate about doing
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chief executive officer-type stuff like making decisions, having a vision and being the head boss person. now the company tells us it's real, but obviously it's meant in a fun way. your reaction? >> well, the market didn't think it was very fun because the stock sold off. need to get serious. we put a short on the stock a while ago, and it's continued to be a very kind of good short. they are making a big push into men'swe wear. little concerned when weis bought his first lulu pants. >> the ceo sees power coming back here and in 60% they are getting better prices. i like that. i think he said they are not seeing flippers. they are not seeing investors, full. instead, these are actually home buyers coming in and that he sees that pricing power improving throughout the year. i think it's another reason i like the housing sector. >> stef, conoco phillips? >>'s money has been made. sold out of the position just to fund other energy positions, but great story, great company.
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like the restructuring but think the easy money has been made. >> pete, facebook? >> it's about mobile and seems to only react when zuckerberg comes out and talks about how well or poorly they have been doing. doing well and because of that the stock pops. right now it's sitting there flat, 23, 24. >> final trades on the half. we'll let you know who you think won our debate on first solar when we come back. (announcer) at scottrade, our clients trade and invest exactly how they want. with scottrade's online banking, i get one view of my bank and brokerage accounts with one login... to easily move my money when i need to. plus, when i call my local scottrade office, i can talk to someone who knows how i trade. because i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade. awarded five-stars from smartmoney magazine.
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i'm on expert on softball. and tea parties. i'll have more awkward conversations than i'm equipped for, because i'm raising two girls on my own. i'll worry about the economy more than a few times before they're grown. but it's for them, so i've found a way. who matters most to you says the most about you. at massmutual we're owned by our policyowners, and they matter most to us. ready to plan for your future? we'll help you get there. we've been bringing people together. today, we'd like people to come together on something that concerns all of us. obesity.
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and as the nation's leading beverage company, we can play an important role. that includes continually providing more options. giving people easy ways to help make informed choices. and offering portion controlled versions of our most popular drinks. it also means working with our industry to voluntarily change what's offered in schools. but beating obesity will take continued action by all of us, based on one simple common sense fact... all calories count. and if you eat and drink more calories than you burn off, you'll gain weight. that goes for coca-cola, and everything else with calories. finding a solution will take all of us. but at coca-cola, we know when people come together, good things happen. to learn more, visit coke.com/comingtogether otherworldly things. but there are some things i've never seen before. this ge jet engine can understand 5,000 data samples per second.
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which is good for business. because planes use less fuel, spend less time on the ground and more time in the air. suddenly, faraway places don't seem so...far away. ♪ welcome back. want to show you the markets real quick. what a wild week. first three-day losing streak of 2013 followed by the rib back yesterday and here we are heading down lower. the dow is almost looking at a triple-digit loss here. certainly working towards that direction at just about 1:00. dow's down 89 points. well, we've at allied the results. you said that pete, the bull, won the debate by the way on first solar. let's do final trades quickly. pete, can you kick us off. >> i'll start or with merck. like the entire area. going higher. >> stephanie?
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>> cit. >> dr. j. >> tivo. record that one and buy that one. >> bakes? >> father's day sunday, light up the barbie. >> that does it for us. don't forget to catch "fast money" tonight followed by "options action." i'll see you at the nasdaq for that. follow me on 2008e 2008er @scottwapnercnbc. and a special "power lunch" begins right now. welcome to a special edition of "power lunch." sue and tyler are off today, and anything could happen in the next 60 minutes. i'm simon hobbs, and this is a special edition of "power lunch" with a special power panel. kayla tausche will join us covering all the big deals on wall street. a high network correspondent robert frank will also be here, kate kelly who covers high finance and the hedgies and covering politics and power direct and uncut from d.c. eamon javers, so from washington to wall street, from this country to around the globe, we've got you covered for the next hour exploring the events shaping our world through
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